สัมมนา - คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์
สัมมนา : รายการสัมมนา
สัมมนาเดือนกันยายน 2559
seminar"Tracing and Quantifying Influences of Fossil Fuels in Thailand’s Economic Structure Using Multiplier and Structural Path Analysis"
Abstract :
Thailand has pledged the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which includes the sector-specific reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission. Based on this plan, the insight of economic structure, especially the roles of high GHGs emitting sectors within the economy, is among important fundamentals. Hence, this study aims at examining how adjustments originated from high GHGs emitting activities propagate throughout the economy. This study uses official input-output tables of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, which are the most updated official data. The computation of Leontief backward and Forward Multipliers was conducted to examine each production activity's propagation magnitude to other sectors. In addition, Structural Path Analysis (SPA) was applied to further quantify the degree of economic linkages of high GHGs emitting sectors along their supply chains. Interestingly, the multiplier analysis shows that the group of sectors having the highest values of backward and Forward Multipliers has been unchanged since 1995, and the refinery activity has been among these sectors having the highest Forward Multipliers. This indicates the significant role of fossil-based energy in Thai economy since 1995. The result from SPA also illustrates and quantifies that refinery is among the most influential sectors of origins, functioning as the starting point of many supply chains. These results indicate two important facts for developing the national GHGs reduction plan. Firstly, the fossil fuel has been the backbone of Thailand’s economic structure since 1995. Therefore, the action to alter the fossil-based production network has to be very influential to reshape this persisting structure. Secondly, the refinery sector, considered as one of main GHGs emitters, is the major upstream activity playing a very significant role in supplying most important paths of production chains. Hence, the adjustment of the refinery sector will inevitably propagate throughout all connecting supply chains and subsequently incur the high abatement cost of GHGs reduction.
By :
Dr.Nattapong Puttanapong , Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University
Date :
Thursday, 8 September 2016
Time :
1.30 pm - 3.30 pm.
Venue :
5th Floor Meeting Room, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Tha Prachan
:
Free/No Reservation Request
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